第29章

The“cycle“ofexaltation，crisis，anddepressionhasfrequentlybeendescribe。PerhapsaseffectiveadescriptionandanalysisasanyisthatofTugan-Baranowsky，Handelskrisen，chap。 Cf。，however，Cassel，“OmKriserochDaligaTider，“EkonomiskTidskrift，vol。vi，no。2，pp。69-78。 As，e。g。，theeraofprosperity1897-1902tookitsstartfromthedemandforsuppliescausedbytheSpanish-AmericanWar，thoughotherfavorablecircumstancesactedtogiveitvolume。MrCarver，possiblyfollowingsuggestionsgivenbySpiethoff’sdiscussion，hassuggestedthatthelinesofbusinessinwhichthefavorableinitialdisturbancearisesarenecessarilythoseengagedintheproductionof“producer’sgoods“；thereasonforthisbeingthat，inthenatureofthecase，“thevalueofproducer’sgoodstendstofluctuatemoreviolentlythanthevalueofconsumer’sgoods，“inasmuchasthevalueofproducer’sgoodsvariessomewhatasthemagnitudeofthemarginofprofits，whilethatoftheconsumer’sgoodsvariessomewhatasthemagnitudeoftheentiredemandonwhichthismarginofprofitsrestsasanincrement。(Thevalueofproducer’sgoods=f(delta)，thatofconsumer’sgoods=f(demand+delta)。)Fromthelikelineofargumentitshouldfollowthattheinitialbreakintimeofcrisismustcomeinsomelineofbusinessoccupiedwithproducer’sgoods。Cf。QuarterlyJournalofEconomics，Mayl903，pp。497-500。Seealsofoot-noteonp。181above。 9。Cf。Sombart，Kapitalismus，volII，ch。I，onthemotiveforcesatworkinadvancingbusinessenterprise。 10。The“intitialdisturbance“herespokenofmayofcoursebeofaprogressiveorrecurringcharacter，andsomaykeepthedifferentialadvantagegoinginaprogressivemanner，as，e。g。，inthecaseofaprogressivedemandforsuppliesduetoaprotractedwarortoaperiodofcontinuedpreparationforwar，suchashasoccurredinAmericaduringthelastfewyears。 11。Thereisapointortwooffurtherdetailinwhatmaybecalledthemethodofprosperityandcrisis，whicharebestdiscussedinconnectionwiththephenomenaofdepression。Thesewill，therefore，betakenuppresently。Theabovecharacterizationofaneraofprosperityandthemannerofitsexhaustingitselfwillserveasadescriptionofthecoursewhichsuchaneratakesundertheregimeofthemorehighlydevelopedbusinessmethodsofthehightideofthenineteenthcentury。Fortheearlier，lessfullydeveloped，businesssituationoftheearlynineteenthcenturythecorrespondingcourseofeventsrunssomewhatdifferent，owing，chieflyatleast，(1)toaslowerrateoftransmissionofanypricedisturbance，and(2)tothegreaterrangeandvalueof“outlying“industrieswhichareverytardilyifatalldrawnintotheexuberantmovementofprosperity。Inthisconnectionitisworthnotingthatduringthisearlierperiodofthenineteenthcenturytheproductionofspecificallyproductivegoodshadnotbeencarriedtothepointafterwardattained，eitherinthedifferentiationandspecializationofindustriesoccupiedwiththisclassofgoodsorintherelativevolumeofthisclassofindustries。 12。Theseveralphasesofthissequenceofexaltationanddepressionforanygivenbusinessconcern，maybestatedasfollows:- Letea=earnings；pr=salepriceofoutput；exp=expensesofproductionofoutput；mar=marginofgainonoutput=pr- exp；cap=intitialeffectivecapitalization；yp=year’spurchaseat(currentrates=int)=1/int，disregardingrisk；cr=normalcreditextensionongivencap=cap/n=f(cap/int)。 Thenattheinitialphase，ea=(mar=pr-exp)outp，cap=eaxyp=ea/int，cr=cap/n，Atthesubsequentphase，ofexaltation，ea’=ea+deltaea=mar’xoutp=[(pr’=pr+deltapr)-exp]outp=(mar+deltamar)outp>ea，cap’=ea’/int=(ea+deltaea)/int>cap，cr’=cap’/n=(cap+deltacap)/n>cr。 Attheconcludingphase，ofdepression，ea’’=ea’-deltaea’=mar’’xoutp=[pr’-(exp’=exp+deltaexp)]outpl’。 CompareHobson，ProblemoftheUnemployed，ch。V，andTugan-Baranowsky，Handelskrisen，ch。IandVI。Inhiscriticism(pp。191-193)TuganhasquitemissedthepointofHobson’stheoryaswellasofhisillustration，havingapparentlynotunderstoodHobson’sexposition，whichis，ineffect，verysimilartohisown。SeealsoHobson，ModernCapitalism，ch。VII，especiallysecs。8and16。