ANESSAYONTHEPRINCIPLEOFPOPULATION，ASITAFFECTSTHEFUTURE
IMPROVEMENTOFSOCIETYWITHREMARKSONTHESPECULATIONSOFMR。
GODWIN，M。CONDORCET，ANDOTHERWRITERS。
LONDON，PRINTEDFORJ。JOHNSON，INST。PAUL’SCHURCH—YARD，1798。
PrefaceTHEfollowingEssayowesitsorigintoaconversationwithafriend，onthesubjectofMrGodwin’sessayon’AvariceandProfusion’inhisEnquirer。Thediscussionstartedthegeneralquestionofthefutureimprovementofsociety。andtheAuthoratfirstsatdownwithanintentionofmerelystatinghisthoughtstohisfriend，uponpaper，inaclearermannerthanhethoughthecoulddoinconversation。Butasthesubjectopeneduponhim，someideasoccurred，whichhedidnotrecollecttohavemetwithbefore;andasheconceivedthateveryleastlight，onatopicsogenerallyinteresting，mightbereceivedwithcandour，hedeterminedtoputhisthoughtsinaformforpublication。
TheEssaymight，undoubtedly，havebeenrenderedmuchmorecompletebyacollectionofagreaternumberoffactsinelucidationofthegeneralargument。Butalongandalmosttotalinterruptionfromveryparticularbusiness，joinedtoadesire（perhapsimprudent）ofnotdelayingthepublicationmuchbeyondthetimethatheoriginallyproposed，preventedtheAuthorfromgivingtothesubjectanundividedattention。Hepresumes，however，thatthefactswhichhehasadducedwillbefoundtoformnoinconsiderableevidenceforthetruthofhisopinionrespectingthefutureimprovementofmankind。AstheAuthorcontemplatesthisopinionatpresent，littlemoreappearstohimtobenecessarythanaplainstatement，inadditiontothemostcursoryviewofsociety，toestablishit。
Itisanobvioustruth，whichhasbeentakennoticeofbymanywriters，thatpopulationmustalwaysbekeptdowntothelevelofthemeansofsubsistence;butnowriterthattheAuthorrecollectshasinquiredparticularlyintothemeansbywhichthisleveliseffected：anditisaviewofthesemeanswhichforms，tohismind，thestrongestobstacleinthewaytoanyverygreatfutureimprovementofsociety。Hehopesitwillappearthat，inthediscussionofthisinterestingsubject，heisactuatedsolelybyaloveoftruth，andnotbyanyprejudicesagainstanyparticularsetofmen，orofopinions。Heprofessestohavereadsomeofthespeculationsonthefutureimprovementofsocietyinatemperverydifferentfromawishtofindthemvisionary，buthehasnotacquiredthatcommandoverhisunderstandingwhichwouldenablehimtobelievewhathewishes，withoutevidence，ortorefusehisassenttowhatmightbeunpleasing，whenaccompaniedwithevidence。
Theviewwhichhehasgivenofhumanlifehasamelancholyhue，buthefeelsconsciousthathehasdrawnthesedarktintsfromaconvictionthattheyarereallyinthepicture，andnotfromajaundicedeyeoraninherentspleenofdisposition。Thetheoryofmindwhichhehassketchedinthetwolastchaptersaccountstohisownunderstandinginasatisfactorymannerfortheexistenceofmostoftheevilsoflife，butwhetheritwillhavethesameeffectuponothersmustbelefttothejudgementofhisreaders。
Ifheshouldsucceedindrawingtheattentionofmoreablementowhatheconceivestobetheprincipaldifficultyinthewaytotheimprovementofsocietyandshould，inconsequence，seethisdifficultyremoved，evenintheory，hewillgladlyretracthispresentopinionsandrejoiceinaconvictionofhiserror。
7June1798
CHAPTER1
Questionstated—Littleprospectofadeterminationofit，fromtheenmityoftheopposingparties—Theprincipalargumentagainsttheperfectibilityofmanandofsocietyhasneverbeenfairlyanswered—Natureofthedifficultyarisingfrompopulation—OutlineoftheprincipalargumentoftheEssayTHEgreatandunlookedfordiscoveriesthathavetakenplaceoflateyearsinnaturalphilosophy，theincreasingdiffusionofgeneralknowledgefromtheextensionoftheartofprinting，theardentandunshackledspiritofinquirythatprevailsthroughouttheletteredandevenunletteredworld，thenewandextraordinarylightsthathavebeenthrownonpoliticalsubjectswhichdazzleandastonishtheunderstanding，andparticularlythattremendousphenomenoninthepoliticalhorizon，theFrenchRevolution，which，likeablazingcomet，seemsdestinedeithertoinspirewithfreshlifeandvigour，ortoscorchupanddestroytheshrinkinginhabitantsoftheearth，haveallconcurredtoleadmanyablemenintotheopinionthatweweretouchingonaperiodbigwiththemostimportantchanges，changesthatwouldinsomemeasurebedecisiveofthefuturefateofmankind。
Ithasbeensaidthatthegreatquestionisnowatissue，whethermanshallhenceforthstartforwardswithacceleratedvelocitytowardsillimitable，andhithertounconceivedimprovement，orbecondemnedtoaperpetualoscillationbetweenhappinessandmisery，andaftereveryeffortremainstillatanimmeasurabledistancefromthewished—forgoal。
Yet，anxiouslyaseveryfriendofmankindmustlookforwardstotheterminationofthispainfulsuspense，andeagerlyastheinquiringmindwouldhaileveryrayoflightthatmightassistitsviewintofuturity，itismuchtobelamentedthatthewritersoneachsideofthismomentousquestionstillkeepfaralooffromeachother。Theirmutualargumentsdonotmeetwithacandidexamination。Thequestionisnotbroughttorestonfewerpoints，andevenintheoryscarcelyseemstobeapproachingtoadecision。
Theadvocateforthepresentorderofthingsisapttotreatthesectofspeculativephilosopherseitherasasetofartfulanddesigningknaveswhopreachupardentbenevolenceanddrawcaptivatingpicturesofahappierstateofsocietyonlythebettertoenablethemtodestroythepresentestablishmentsandtoforwardtheirowndeep—laidschemesofambition，oraswildandmad—headedenthusiastswhosesillyspeculationsandabsurdparadoxesarenotworthytheattentionofanyreasonableman。
Theadvocatefortheperfectibilityofman，andofsociety，retortsonthedefenderofestablishmentsamorethanequalcontempt。Hebrandshimastheslaveofthemostmiserableandnarrowprejudices;orasthedefenderoftheabuses。ofcivilsocietyonlybecauseheprofitsbythem。Hepaintshimeitherasacharacterwhoprostituteshisunderstandingtohisinterest，orasonewhosepowersofmindarenotofasizetograspanythinggreatandnoble，whocannotseeabovefiveyardsbeforehim，andwhomustthereforebeutterlyunabletotakeintheviewsoftheenlightenedbenefactorofmankind。
Inthisunamicablecontestthecauseoftruthcannotbutsuffer。Thereallygoodargumentsoneachsideofthequestionarenotallowedtohavetheirproperweight。Eachpursueshisowntheory，littlesolicitoustocorrectorimproveitbyanattentiontowhatisadvancedbyhisopponents。
Thefriendofthepresentorderofthingscondemnsallpoliticalspeculationsinthegross。Hewillnotevencondescendtoexaminethegroundsfromwhichtheperfectibilityofsocietyisinferred。Muchlesswillhegivehimselfthetroubleinafairandcandidmannertoattemptanexpositionoftheirfallacy。
Thespeculativephilosopherequallyoffendsagainstthecauseoftruth。Witheyesfixedonahappierstateofsociety，theblessingsofwhichhepaintsinthemostcaptivatingcolours，heallowshimselftoindulgeinthemostbitterinvectivesagainsteverypresentestablishment，withoutapplyinghistalentstoconsiderthebestandsafestmeansofremovingabusesandwithoutseemingtobeawareofthetremendousobstaclesthatthreaten，evenintheory，toopposetheprogressofmantowardsperfection。
Itisanacknowledgedtruthinphilosophythatajusttheorywillalwaysbeconfirmedbyexperiment。Yetsomuchfriction，andsomanyminutecircumstancesoccurinpractice，whichitisnexttoimpossibleforthemostenlargedandpenetratingmindtoforesee，thatonfewsubjectscananytheorybepronouncedjust，tillalltheargumentsagainstithavebeenmaturelyweighedandclearlyandconsistentlyrefuted。
Ihavereadsomeofthespeculationsontheperfectibilityofmanandofsocietywithgreatpleasure。Ihavebeenwarmedanddelightedwiththeenchantingpicturewhichtheyholdforth。I
ardentlywishforsuchhappyimprovements。ButIseegreat，and，tomyunderstanding，unconquerabledifficultiesinthewaytothem。Thesedifficultiesitismypresentpurposetostate，declaring，atthesametime，thatsofarfromexultinginthem，asacauseoftriumphoverthefriendsofinnovation，nothingwouldgivemegreaterpleasurethantoseethemcompletelyremoved。
ThemostimportantargumentthatIshalladduceiscertainlynotnew。TheprinciplesonwhichitdependshavebeenexplainedinpartbyHume，andmoreatlargebyDrAdamSmith。Ithasbeenadvancedandappliedtothepresentsubject，thoughnotwithitsproperweight，orinthemostforciblepointofview，byMrWallace，anditmayprobablyhavebeenstatedbymanywritersthatIhavenevermetwith。Ishouldcertainlythereforenotthinkofadvancingitagain，thoughImeantoplaceitinapointofviewinsomedegreedifferentfromanythatIhavehithertoseen，ifithadeverbeenfairlyandsatisfactorilyanswered。
Thecauseofthisneglectonthepartoftheadvocatesfortheperfectibilityofmankindisnoteasilyaccountedfor。I
cannotdoubtthetalentsofsuchmenasGodwinandCondorcet。I
amunwillingtodoubttheircandour。Tomyunderstanding，andprobablytothatofmostothers，thedifficultyappearsinsurmountable。Yetthesemenofacknowledgedabilityandpenetrationscarcelydeigntonoticeit，andholdontheircourseinsuchspeculationswithunabatedardourandundiminishedconfidence。Ihavecertainlynorighttosaythattheypurposelyshuttheireyestosucharguments。Ioughtrathertodoubtthevalidityofthem，whenneglectedbysuchmen，howeverforciblytheirtruthmaystrikemyownmind。Yetinthisrespectitmustbeacknowledgedthatweareallofustoopronetoerr。IfIsawaglassofwinerepeatedlypresentedtoaman，andhetooknonoticeofit，Ishouldbeapttothinkthathewasblindoruncivil。AjusterphilosophymightteachmerathertothinkthatmyeyesdeceivedmeandthattheofferwasnotreallywhatI
conceivedittobe。
InenteringupontheargumentImustpremisethatIputoutofthequestion，atpresent，allmereconjectures，thatis，allsuppositions，theprobablerealizationofwhichcannotbeinferreduponanyjustphilosophicalgrounds。Awritermaytellmethathethinksmanwillultimatelybecomeanostrich。Icannotproperlycontradicthim。Butbeforehecanexpecttobringanyreasonablepersonovertohisopinion，heoughttoshewthatthenecksofmankindhavebeengraduallyelongating，thatthelipshavegrownharderandmoreprominent，thatthelegsandfeetaredailyalteringtheirshape，andthatthehairisbeginningtochangeintostubsoffeathers。Andtilltheprobabilityofsowonderfulaconversioncanbeshewn，itissurelylosttimeandlosteloquencetoexpatiateonthehappinessofmaninsuchastate;todescribehispowers，bothofrunningandflying，topainthiminaconditionwhereallnarrowluxurieswouldbecontemned，wherehewouldbeemployedonlyincollectingthenecessariesoflife，andwhere，consequently，eachman’sshareoflabourwouldbelight，andhisportionofleisureample。
IthinkImayfairlymaketwopostulata。
First，Thatfoodisnecessarytotheexistenceofman。
Secondly，Thatthepassionbetweenthesexesisnecessaryandwillremainnearlyinitspresentstate。
Thesetwolaws，eversincewehavehadanyknowledgeofmankind，appeartohavebeenfixedlawsofournature，and，aswehavenothithertoseenanyalterationinthem，wehavenorighttoconcludethattheywilleverceasetobewhattheynoware，withoutanimmediateactofpowerinthatBeingwhofirstarrangedthesystemoftheuniverse，andfortheadvantageofhiscreatures，stillexecutes，accordingtofixedlaws，allitsvariousoperations。
Idonotknowthatanywriterhassupposedthatonthisearthmanwillultimatelybeabletolivewithoutfood。ButMrGodwinhasconjecturedthatthepassionbetweenthesexesmayintimebeextinguished。As，however，hecallsthispartofhisworkadeviationintothelandofconjecture，Iwillnotdwelllongeruponitatpresentthantosaythatthebestargumentsfortheperfectibilityofmanaredrawnfromacontemplationofthegreatprogressthathehasalreadymadefromthesavagestateandthedifficultyofsayingwhereheistostop。Buttowardstheextinctionofthepassionbetweenthesexes，noprogresswhateverhashithertobeenmade。Itappearstoexistinasmuchforceatpresentasitdidtwothousandorfourthousandyearsago。Thereareindividualexceptionsnowastherealwayshavebeen。But，astheseexceptionsdonotappeartoincreaseinnumber，itwouldsurelybeaveryunphilosophicalmodeofarguingtoinfer，merelyfromtheexistenceofanexception，thattheexceptionwould，intime，becometherule，andtheruletheexception。
Assumingthenmypostulataasgranted，Isay，thatthepowerofpopulationisindefinitelygreaterthanthepowerintheearthtoproducesubsistenceforman。
Population，whenunchecked，increasesinageometricalratio。
Subsistenceincreasesonlyinanarithmeticalratio。Aslightacquaintancewithnumberswillshewtheimmensityofthefirstpowerincomparisonofthesecond。
Bythatlawofournaturewhichmakesfoodnecessarytothelifeofman，theeffectsofthesetwounequalpowersmustbekeptequal。
Thisimpliesastrongandconstantlyoperatingcheckonpopulationfromthedifficultyofsubsistence。Thisdifficultymustfallsomewhereandmustnecessarilybeseverelyfeltbyalargeportionofmankind。
Throughtheanimalandvegetablekingdoms，naturehasscatteredtheseedsoflifeabroadwiththemostprofuseandliberalhand。Shehasbeencomparativelysparingintheroomandthenourishmentnecessarytorearthem。Thegermsofexistencecontainedinthisspotofearth，withamplefood，andampleroomtoexpandin，wouldfillmillionsofworldsinthecourseofafewthousandyears。Necessity，thatimperiousallpervadinglawofnature，restrainsthemwithintheprescribedbounds。Theraceofplantsandtheraceofanimalsshrinkunderthisgreatrestrictivelaw。Andtheraceofmancannot，byanyeffortsofreason，escapefromit。Amongplantsandanimalsitseffectsarewasteofseed，sickness，andprematuredeath。Amongmankind，miseryandvice。Theformer，misery，isanabsolutelynecessaryconsequenceofit。Viceisahighlyprobableconsequence，andwethereforeseeitabundantlyprevail，butitoughtnot，perhaps，tobecalledanabsolutelynecessaryconsequence。Theordealofvirtueistoresistalltemptationtoevil。
Thisnaturalinequalityofthetwopowersofpopulationandofproductionintheearth，andthatgreatlawofournaturewhichmustconstantlykeeptheireffectsequal，formthegreatdifficultythattomeappearsinsurmountableinthewaytotheperfectibilityofsociety。Allotherargumentsareofslightandsubordinateconsiderationincomparisonofthis。Iseenowaybywhichmancanescapefromtheweightofthislawwhichpervadesallanimatednature。Nofanciedequality，noagrarianregulationsintheirutmostextent，couldremovethepressureofitevenforasinglecentury。Anditappears，therefore，tobedecisiveagainstthepossibleexistenceofasociety，allthemembersofwhichshouldliveinease，happiness，andcomparativeleisure;
andfeelnoanxietyaboutprovidingthemeansofsubsistenceforthemselvesandfamilies。
Consequently，ifthepremisesarejust，theargumentisconclusiveagainsttheperfectibilityofthemassofmankind。
Ihavethussketchedthegeneraloutlineoftheargument，butIwillexamineitmoreparticularly，andIthinkitwillbefoundthatexperience，thetruesourceandfoundationofallknowledge，invariablyconfirmsitstruth。
CHAPTER2
Thedifferentratioinwhichpopulationandfoodincrease—Thenecessaryeffectsofthesedifferentratiosofincrease—
Oscillationproducedbythemintheconditionofthelowerclassesofsociety—Reasonswhythisoscillationhasnotbeensomuchobservedasmightbeexpected—ThreepropositionsonwhichthegeneralargumentoftheEssaydepends——Thedifferentstatesinwhichmankindhavebeenknowntoexistproposedtobeexaminedwithreferencetothesethreepropositions。
ISAIDthatpopulation，whenunchecked，increasedinageometricalratio，andsubsistenceformaninanarithmeticalratio。
Letusexaminewhetherthispositionbejust。Ithinkitwillbeallowed，thatnostatehashithertoexisted（atleastthatwehaveanyaccountof）wherethemannersweresopureandsimple，andthemeansofsubsistencesoabundant，thatnocheckwhateverhasexistedtoearlymarriages，amongthelowerclasses，fromafearofnotprovidingwellfortheirfamilies，oramongthehigherclasses，fromafearofloweringtheirconditioninlife。
Consequentlyinnostatethatwehaveyetknownhasthepowerofpopulationbeenlefttoexertitselfwithperfectfreedom。
Whetherthelawofmarriagebeinstitutedornot，thedictateofnatureandvirtueseemstobeanearlyattachmenttoonewoman。Supposingalibertyofchanginginthecaseofanunfortunatechoice，thislibertywouldnotaffectpopulationtillitarosetoaheightgreatlyvicious;andwearenowsupposingtheexistenceofasocietywhereviceisscarcelyknown。
Inastatethereforeofgreatequalityandvirtue，wherepureandsimplemannersprevailed，andwherethemeansofsubsistenceweresoabundantthatnopartofthesocietycouldhaveanyfearsaboutprovidingamplyforafamily，thepowerofpopulationbeinglefttoexertitselfunchecked，theincreaseofthehumanspecieswouldevidentlybemuchgreaterthananyincreasethathasbeenhithertoknown。
IntheUnitedStatesofAmerica，wherethemeansofsubsistencehavebeenmoreample，themannersofthepeoplemorepure，andconsequentlythecheckstoearlymarriagesfewer，thaninanyofthemodernstatesofEurope，thepopulationhasbeenfoundtodoubleitselfintwenty—fiveyears。
Thisratioofincrease，thoughshortoftheutmostpowerofpopulation，yetastheresultofactualexperience，wewilltakeasourrule，andsay，thatpopulation，whenunchecked，goesondoublingitselfeverytwenty—fiveyearsorincreasesinageometricalratio。
Letusnowtakeanyspotofearth，thisIslandforinstance，andseeinwhatratiothesubsistenceitaffordscanbesupposedtoincrease。Wewillbeginwithitunderitspresentstateofcultivation。
IfIallowthatbythebestpossiblepolicy，bybreakingupmorelandandbygreatencouragementstoagriculture，theproduceofthisIslandmaybedoubledinthefirsttwenty—fiveyears，I
thinkitwillbeallowingasmuchasanypersoncanwelldemand。
Inthenexttwenty—fiveyears，itisimpossibletosupposethattheproducecouldbequadrupled。Itwouldbecontrarytoallourknowledgeofthequalitiesofland。Theveryutmostthatwecanconceive，is，thattheincreaseinthesecondtwenty—fiveyearsmightequalthepresentproduce。Letusthentakethisforourrule，thoughcertainlyfarbeyondthetruth，andallowthat，bygreatexertion，thewholeproduceoftheIslandmightbeincreasedeverytwenty—fiveyears，byaquantityofsubsistenceequaltowhatitatpresentproduces。Themostenthusiasticspeculatorcannotsupposeagreaterincreasethanthis。InafewcenturiesitwouldmakeeveryacreoflandintheIslandlikeagarden。
Yetthisratioofincreaseisevidentlyarithmetical。
Itmaybefairlysaid，therefore，thatthemeansofsubsistenceincreaseinanarithmeticalratio。Letusnowbringtheeffectsofthesetworatiostogether。
ThepopulationoftheIslandiscomputedtobeaboutsevenmillions，andwewillsupposethepresentproduceequaltothesupportofsuchanumber。Inthefirsttwenty—fiveyearsthepopulationwouldbefourteenmillions，andthefoodbeingalsodoubled，themeansofsubsistencewouldbeequaltothisincrease。Inthenexttwenty—fiveyearsthepopulationwouldbetwenty—eightmillions，andthemeansofsubsistenceonlyequaltothesupportoftwenty—onemillions。Inthenextperiod，thepopulationwouldbefifty—sixmillions，andthemeansofsubsistencejustsufficientforhalfthatnumber。Andattheconclusionofthefirstcenturythepopulationwouldbeonehundredandtwelvemillionsandthemeansofsubsistenceonlyequaltothesupportofthirty—fivemillions，whichwouldleaveapopulationofseventy—sevenmillionstotallyunprovidedfor。
Agreatemigrationnecessarilyimpliesunhappinessofsomekindorotherinthecountrythatisdeserted。Forfewpersonswillleavetheirfamilies，connections，friends，andnativeland，toseekasettlementinuntriedforeignclimes，withoutsomestrongsubsistingcausesofuneasinesswheretheyare，orthehopeofsomegreatadvantagesintheplacetowhichtheyaregoing。
Buttomaketheargumentmoregeneralandlessinterruptedbythepartialviewsofemigration，letustakethewholeearth，insteadofonespot，andsupposethattherestraintstopopulationwereuniversallyremoved。Ifthesubsistenceformanthattheearthaffordswastobeincreasedeverytwenty—fiveyearsbyaquantityequaltowhatthewholeworldatpresentproduces，thiswouldallowthepowerofproductionintheearthtobeabsolutelyunlimited，anditsratioofincreasemuchgreaterthanwecanconceivethatanypossibleexertionsofmankindcouldmakeit。
Takingthepopulationoftheworldatanynumber，athousandmillions，forinstance，thehumanspecieswouldincreaseintheratioof——1，2，4，8，16，32，64，128，256，512，etc。andsubsistenceas——1，2，3，4，5，6，7，8，9，10，etc。Intwocenturiesandaquarter，thepopulationwouldbetothemeansofsubsistenceas512to10：inthreecenturiesas4096to13，andintwothousandyearsthedifferencewouldbealmostincalculable，thoughtheproduceinthattimewouldhaveincreasedtoanimmenseextent。
Nolimitswhateverareplacedtotheproductionsoftheearth;theymayincreaseforeverandbegreaterthananyassignablequantity。yetstillthepowerofpopulationbeingapowerofasuperiororder，theincreaseofthehumanspeciescanonlybekeptcommensuratetotheincreaseofthemeansofsubsistencebytheconstantoperationofthestronglawofnecessityactingasacheckuponthegreaterpower。
Theeffectsofthischeckremainnowtobeconsidered。
Amongplantsandanimalstheviewofthesubjectissimple。
Theyareallimpelledbyapowerfulinstincttotheincreaseoftheirspecies，andthisinstinctisinterruptedbynoreasoningordoubtsaboutprovidingfortheiroffspring。Whereverthereforethereisliberty，thepowerofincreaseisexerted，andthesuperabundanteffectsarerepressedafterwardsbywantofroomandnourishment，whichiscommontoanimalsandplants，andamonganimalsbybecomingthepreyofothers。
Theeffectsofthischeckonmanaremorecomplicated。
Impelledtotheincreaseofhisspeciesbyanequallypowerfulinstinct，reasoninterruptshiscareerandaskshimwhetherhemaynotbringbeingsintotheworldforwhomhecannotprovidethemeansofsubsistence。Inastateofequality，thiswouldbethesimplequestion。Inthepresentstateofsociety，otherconsiderationsoccur。Willhenotlowerhisrankinlife？Willhenotsubjecthimselftogreaterdifficultiesthanheatpresentfeels？Willhenotbeobligedtolabourharder？andifhehasalargefamily，willhisutmostexertionsenablehimtosupportthem？Mayhenotseehisoffspringinragsandmisery，andclamouringforbreadthathecannotgivethem？Andmayhenotbereducedtothegratingnecessityofforfeitinghisindependence，andofbeingobligedtothesparinghandofcharityforsupport？
Theseconsiderationsarecalculatedtoprevent，andcertainlydoprevent，averygreatnumberinallcivilizednationsfrompursuingthedictateofnatureinanearlyattachmenttoonewoman。Andthisrestraintalmostnecessarily，thoughnotabsolutelyso，producesvice。Yetinallsocieties，eventhosethataremostvicious，thetendencytoavirtuousattachmentissostrongthatthereisaconstantefforttowardsanincreaseofpopulation。Thisconstanteffortasconstantlytendstosubjectthelowerclassesofthesocietytodistressandtopreventanygreatpermanentameliorationoftheircondition。
Thewayinwhich，theseeffectsareproducedseemstobethis。Wewillsupposethemeansofsubsistenceinanycountryjustequaltotheeasysupportofitsinhabitants。Theconstantefforttowardspopulation，whichisfoundtoacteveninthemostvicioussocieties，increasesthenumberofpeoplebeforethemeansofsubsistenceareincreased。Thefoodthereforewhichbeforesupportedsevenmillionsmustnowbedividedamongsevenmillionsandahalforeightmillions。Thepoorconsequentlymustlivemuchworse，andmanyofthembereducedtoseveredistress。
Thenumberoflabourersalsobeingabovetheproportionoftheworkinthemarket，thepriceoflabourmusttendtowardadecrease，whilethepriceofprovisionswouldatthesametimetendtorise。Thelabourerthereforemustworkhardertoearnthesameashedidbefore。Duringthisseasonofdistress，thediscouragementstomarriage，andthedifficultyofrearingafamilyaresogreatthatpopulationisatastand。Inthemeantimethecheapnessoflabour，theplentyoflabourers，andthenecessityofanincreasedindustryamongstthem，encouragecultivatorstoemploymorelabourupontheirland，toturnupfreshsoil，andtomanureandimprovemorecompletelywhatisalreadyintillage，tillultimatelythemeansofsubsistencebecomeinthesameproportiontothepopulationasattheperiodfromwhichwesetout。Thesituationofthelabourerbeingthenagaintolerablycomfortable，therestraintstopopulationareinsomedegreeloosened，andthesameretrogradeandprogressivemovementswithrespecttohappinessarerepeated。
Thissortofoscillationwillnotberemarkedbysuperficialobservers，anditmaybedifficultevenforthemostpenetratingmindtocalculateitsperiods。Yetthatinalloldstatessomesuchvibrationdoesexist，thoughfromvarioustransversecauses，inamuchlessmarked，andinamuchmoreirregularmannerthanI
havedescribedit，noreflectingmanwhoconsidersthesubjectdeeplycanwelldoubt。
Manyreasonsoccurwhythisoscillationhasbeenlessobvious，andlessdecidedlyconfirmedbyexperience，thanmightnaturallybeexpected。
Oneprincipalreasonisthatthehistoriesofmankindthatwepossessarehistoriesonlyofthehigherclasses。Wehavebutfewaccountsthatcanbedependeduponofthemannersandcustomsofthatpartofmankindwheretheseretrogradeandprogressivemovementschieflytakeplace。Asatisfactoryhistoryofthiskind，ononepeople，andofoneperiod，wouldrequiretheconstantandminuteattentionofanobservingmindduringalonglife。Someoftheobjectsofinquirywouldbe，inwhatproportiontothenumberofadultswasthenumberofmarriages，towhatextentviciouscustomsprevailedinconsequenceoftherestraintsuponmatrimony，whatwasthecomparativemortalityamongthechildrenofthemostdistressedpartofthecommunityandthosewholivedrathermoreattheirease，whatwerethevariationsintherealpriceoflabour，andwhatweretheobservabledifferencesinthestateofthelowerclassesofsocietywithrespecttoeaseandhappiness，atdifferenttimesduringacertainperiod。
Suchahistorywouldtendgreatlytoelucidatethemannerinwhichtheconstantcheckuponpopulationactsandwouldprobablyprovetheexistenceoftheretrogradeandprogressivemovementsthathavebeenmentioned，thoughthetimesoftheirvibrationsmustnecessarilyberenderedirregularfromtheoperationofmanyinterruptingcauses，suchastheintroductionorfailureofcertainmanufactures，agreaterorlessprevalentspiritofagriculturalenterprise，yearsofplenty，oryearsofscarcity，warsandpestilence，poorlaws，theinventionofprocessesforshorteninglabourwithouttheproportionalextensionofthemarketforthecommodity，and，particularly，thedifferencebetweenthenominalandrealpriceoflabour，acircumstancewhichhasperhapsmorethananyothercontributedtoconcealthisoscillationfromcommonview。
Itveryrarelyhappensthatthenominalpriceoflabouruniversallyfalls，butwewellknowthatitfrequentlyremainsthesame，whilethenominalpriceofprovisionshasbeengraduallyincreasing。Thisis，ineffect，arealfallinthepriceoflabour，andduringthisperiodtheconditionofthelowerordersofthecommunitymustgraduallygrowworseandworse。Butthefarmersandcapitalistsaregrowingrichfromtherealcheapnessoflabour。Theirincreasedcapitalsenablethemtoemployagreaternumberofmen。Workthereforemaybeplentiful，andthepriceoflabourwouldconsequentlyrise。Butthewantoffreedominthemarketoflabour，whichoccursmoreorlessinallcommunities，eitherfromparishlaws，orthemoregeneralcauseofthefacilityofcombinationamongtherich，anditsdifficultyamongthepoor，operatestopreventthepriceoflabourfromrisingatthenaturalperiod，andkeepsitdownsometimelonger;
perhapstillayearofscarcity，whentheclamouristooloudandthenecessitytooapparenttoberesisted。
Thetruecauseoftheadvanceinthepriceoflabouristhusconcealed，andtherichaffecttograntitasanactofcompassionandfavourtothepoor，inconsiderationofayearofscarcity，and，whenplentyreturns，indulgethemselvesinthemostunreasonableofallcomplaints，thatthepricedoesnotagainfall，whenalittlerejectionwouldshewthemthatitmusthaverisenlongbeforebutfromanunjustconspiracyoftheirown。
Butthoughtherichbyunfaircombinationscontributefrequentlytoprolongaseasonofdistressamongthepoor，yetnopossibleformofsocietycouldpreventthealmostconstantactionofmiseryuponagreatpartofmankind，ifinastateofinequality，anduponall，ifallwereequal。
ThetheoryonwhichthetruthofthispositiondependsappearstomesoextremelyclearthatIfeelatalosstoconjecturewhatpartofitcanbedenied。
Thatpopulationcannotincreasewithoutthemeansofsubsistenceisapropositionsoevidentthatitneedsnoillustration。
Thatpopulationdoesinvariablyincreasewheretherearethemeansofsubsistence，thehistoryofeverypeoplethathaveeverexistedwillabundantlyprove。
Andthatthesuperiorpowerofpopulationcannotbecheckedwithoutproducingmiseryorvice，theampleportionofthesetoobitteringredientsinthecupofhumanlifeandthecontinuanceofthe。physicalcausesthatseemtohaveproducedthembeartooconvincingatestimony。
But，inordermorefullytoascertainthevalidityofthesethreepropositions，letusexaminethedifferentstatesinwhichmankindhavebeenknowntoexist。Evenacursoryreviewwill，I
think，besufficienttoconvinceusthatthesepropositionsareincontrovertibletruths。
CHAPTER3
Thesavageorhunterstateshortlyreviewed—Theshepherdstate，orthetribesofbarbariansthatoverrantheRomanEmpire—Thesuperiorityofthepowerofpopulationtothemeansofsubsistence—thecauseofthegreattideofNorthernEmigration。
INtherudeststateofmankind，inwhichhuntingistheprincipaloccupation，andtheonlymodeofacquiringfood，themeansofsubsistencebeingscatteredoveralargeextentofterritory，thecomparativepopulationmustnecessarilybethin。ItissaidthatthepassionbetweenthesexesislessardentamongtheNorthAmericanIndiansthanamonganyotherraceofmen。Yet，notwithstandingthisapathy，theefforttowardspopulation，eveninthispeople，seemstobealwaysgreaterthanthemeanstosupportit。Thisappearsfromthecomparativelyrapidpopulationthattakesplacewheneveranyofthetribeshappentosettleinsomefertilespotandtodrawnourishmentfrommorefruitfulsourcesthanthatofhunting，andithasbeenfrequentlyremarkedthatwhenanIndianfamilyhastakenupitsabodenearanyEuropeansettlementandadoptedamoreeasyandcivilizedmodeoflife，thatonewomanhasrearedfive，orsix，ormorechildren，thoughinthesavagestateitrarelyhappensthataboveoneortwoinafamilygrowuptomaturity。ThesameobservationhasbeenmadewithregardtotheHottentotsneartheCape。Thesefactsprovethesuperiorpowerofpopulationtothemeansofsubsistenceinnationsofhunters，andthatthispoweralwaysshewsitselfthemomentitislefttoactwithfreedom。
Itremainstoinquirewhetherthispowercanbechecked，anditseffectskeptequaltothemeansofsubsistence，withoutviceormisery。
TheNorthAmericanIndians，consideredasapeople，cannotjustlybecalledfreeandequal。Inalltheaccountswehaveofthem，and，indeed，ofmostothersavagenations，thewomenarerepresentedasmuchmorecompletelyinastateofslaverytothementhanthepooraretotherichincivilizedcountries。OnehalfthenationappearstoactasHelotstotheotherhalf，andthemiserythatcheckspopulationfallschiefly，asitalwaysmustdo，uponthatpartwhoseconditionislowestinthescaleofsociety。Theinfancyofmaninthesimpleststaterequiresconsiderableattention，butthisnecessaryattentionthewomencannotgive，condemnedastheyaretotheinconveniencesandhardshipsoffrequentchangeofplaceandtotheconstantandunremittingdrudgeryofpreparingeverythingforthereceptionoftheirtyranniclords。Theseexertions，sometimesduringpregnancyorwithchildrenattheirbacks，mustoccasionfrequentmiscarriages，andpreventanybutthemostrobustinfantsfromgrowingtomaturity。Addtothesehardshipsofthewomentheconstantwarthatprevailsamongsavages，andthenecessitywhichtheyfrequentlylabourunderofexposingtheiragedandhelplessparents，andofthusviolatingthefirstfeelingsofnature，andthepicturewillnotappearveryfreefromtheblotofmisery。Inestimatingthehappinessofasavagenation，wemustnotfixoureyesonlyonthewarriorintheprimeoflife：heisoneofahundred：heisthegentleman，themanoffortune，thechanceshavebeeninhisfavourandmanyeffortshavefailederethisfortunatebeingwasproduced，whoseguardiangeniusshouldpreservehimthroughthenumberlessdangerswithwhichhewouldbesurroundedfrominfancytomanhood。Thetruepointsofcomparisonbetweentwonationsseemtobetheranksineachwhichappearnearesttoanswertoeachother。Andinthisview，I
shouldcomparethewarriorsintheprimeoflifewiththegentlemen，andthewomen，children，andaged，withthelowerclassesofthecommunityincivilizedstates。
Maywenotthenfairlyinferfromthisshortreview，orrather，fromtheaccountsthatmaybereferredtoofnationsofhunters，thattheirpopulationisthinfromthescarcityoffood，thatitwouldimmediatelyincreaseiffoodwasingreaterplenty，andthat，puttingviceoutofthequestionamongsavages，miseryisthecheckthatrepressesthesuperiorpowerofpopulationandkeepsitseffectsequaltothemeansofsubsistence。Actualobservationandexperiencetellusthatthischeck，withafewlocalandtemporaryexceptions，isconstantlyactingnowuponallsavagenations，andthetheoryindicatesthatitprobablyactedwithnearlyequalstrengthathousandyearsago，anditmaynotbemuchgreaterathousandyearshence。
Ofthemannersandhabitsthatprevailamongnationsofshepherds，thenextstateofmankind，weareevenmoreignorantthanofthesavagestate。Butthatthesenationscouldnotescapethegenerallotofmiseryarisingfromthewantofsubsistence，Europe，andallthefairestcountriesintheworld，bearampletestimony。WantwasthegoadthatdrovetheScythianshepherdsfromtheirnativehaunts，likesomanyfamishedwolvesinsearchofprey。Setinmotionbythisallpowerfulcause，cloudsofBarbariansseemedtocollectfromallpointsofthenorthernhemisphere。Gatheringfreshdarknessandterrorastheyrolledon，thecongregatedbodiesatlengthobscuredthesunofitalyandsunkthewholeworldinuniversalnight。Thesetremendouseffects，solongandsodeeplyfeltthroughoutthefairestportionsoftheearth，maybetracedtothesimplecauseofthesuperiorpowerofpopulationtothemeansofsubsistence。
Itiswellknownthatacountryinpasturecannotsupportsomanyinhabitantsasacountryintillage，butwhatrendersnationsofshepherdssoformidableisthepowerwhichtheypossessofmovingalltogetherandthenecessitytheyfrequentlyfeelofexertingthispowerinsearchoffreshpasturefortheirherds。Atribethatwasrichincattlehadanimmediateplentyoffood。Eventheparentstockmightbedevouredinacaseofabsolutenecessity。Thewomenlivedingreatereasethanamongnationsofhunters。Themenboldintheirunitedstrengthandconfidingintheirpowerofprocuringpasturefortheircattlebychangeofplace，felt，probably，butfewfearsaboutprovidingforafamily。Thesecombinedcausessoonproducedtheirnaturalandinvariableeffect，anextendedpopulation。Amorefrequentandrapidchangeofplacebecamethennecessary。Awiderandmoreextensiveterritorywassuccessivelyoccupied。Abroaderdesolationextendedallaroundthem。Wantpinchedthelessfortunatemembersofthesociety，and，atlength，theimpossibilityofsupportingsuchanumbertogetherbecametooevidenttoberesisted。Youngscionswerethenpushedoutfromtheparent—stockandinstructedtoexplorefreshregionsandtogainhappierseatsforthemselvesbytheirswords。’Theworldwasallbeforethemwheretochoose。’Restlessfrompresentdistress，flushedwiththehopeoffairerprospects，andanimatedwiththespiritofhardyenterprise，thesedaringadventurerswerelikelytobecomeformidableadversariestoallwhoopposedthem。Thepeacefulinhabitantsofthecountriesonwhichtheyrushedcouldnotlongwithstandtheenergyofmenactingundersuchpowerfulmotivesofexertion。Andwhentheyfellinwithanytribesliketheirown，thecontestwasastruggleforexistence，andtheyfoughtwithadesperatecourage，inspiredbythereJectionthatdeathwasthepunishmentofdefeatandlifetheprizeofvictory。
Inthesesavagecontestsmanytribesmusthavebeenutterlyexterminated。Some，probably，perishedbyhardshipandfamine。
Others，whoseleadingstarhadgiventhemahappierdirection，becamegreatandpowerfultribes，and，intheirturns，sentofffreshadventurersinsearchofstillmorefertileseats。Theprodigiouswasteofhumanlifeoccasionedbythisperpetualstruggleforroomandfoodwasmorethansuppliedbythemightypowerofpopulation，acting，insomedegree，unshackledfromtheconsenthabitofemigration。ThetribesthatmigratedtowardstheSouth，thoughtheywonthesemorefruitfulregionsbycontinualbattles，rapidlyincreasedinnumberandpower，fromtheincreasedmeansofsubsistence。Tillatlengththewholeterritory，fromtheconfinesofChinatotheshoresoftheBaltic，waspeopledbyavariousraceofBarbarians，brave，robust，andenterprising，inuredtohardship，anddelightinginwar。Sometribesmaintainedtheirindependence。Othersrangedthemselvesunderthestandardofsomebarbaricchieftainwholedthemtovictoryaftervictory，andwhatwasofmoreimportance，toregionsaboundingincorn，wine，andoil，thelongwishedforconsummation，andgreatrewardoftheirlabours。AnAlaric，anAttila，oraZingisKhan，andthechiefsaroundthem，mightfightforglory，forthefameofextensiveconquests，butthetruecausethatsetinmotionthegreattideofnorthernemigration，andthatcontinuedtopropelittillitrolledatdifferentperiodsagainstChina，Persia，italy，andevenEgypt，wasascarcityoffood，apopulationextendedbeyondthemeansofsupportingit。
Theabsolutepopulationatanyoneperiod，inproportiontotheextentofterritory，couldneverbegreat，onaccountoftheunproductivenatureofsomeoftheregionsoccupied;butthereappearstohavebeenamostrapidsuccessionofhumanbeings，andasfastassomeweremoweddownbythescytheofwaroroffamine，othersroseinincreasednumberstosupplytheirplace。
AmongtheseboldandimprovidentBarbarians，populationwasprobablybutlittlechecked，asinmodernstates，fromafearoffuturedifficulties。Aprevailinghopeofbetteringtheirconditionbychangeofplace，aconstantexpectationofplunder，apowereven，ifdistressed，ofsellingtheirchildrenasslaves，addedtothenaturalcarelessnessofthebarbariccharacter，allconspiredtoraiseapopulationwhichremainedtoberepressedafterwardsbyfamineorwar。
Wherethereisanyinequalityofconditions，andamongnationsofshepherdsthissoontakesplace，thedistressarisingfromascarcityofprovisionsmustfallhardestupontheleastfortunatemembersofthesociety。Thisdistressalsomustfrequentlyhavebeenfeltbythewomen，exposedtocasualplunderintheabsenceoftheirhusbands，andsubjecttocontinualdisappointmentsintheirexpectedreturn。
Butwithoutknowingenoughoftheminuteandintimatehistoryofthesepeople，topointoutpreciselyonwhatpartthedistressforwantoffoodchieflyfell，andtowhatextentitwasgenerallyfelt，Ithinkwemayfairlysay，fromalltheaccountsthatwehaveofnationsofshepherds，thatpopulationinvariablyincreasedamongthemwhenever，byemigrationoranyothercause，themeansofsubsistencewereincreased，andthatafurtherpopulationwaschecked，andtheactualpopulationkeptequaltothemeansofsubsistence，bymiseryandvice。
For，independentlyofanyviciouscustomsthatmighthaveprevailedamongstthemwithregardtowomen，whichalwaysoperateascheckstopopulation，itmustbeacknowledged，Ithink，thatthecommissionofwarisvice，andtheeffectofitmisery，andnonecandoubtthemiseryofwantoffood。
CHAPTER4
Stateofcivilizednations—ProbabilitythatEuropeismuchmorepopulousnowthaninthetimeofJuliusCaesar—Bestcriterionofpopulation—ProbableerrorofHumeinonethecriterionsthatheproposesasassistinginanestimateofpopulation—SlowincreaseofpopulationatpresentinmostofthestatesofEurope—Thetwoprincipalcheckstopopulation—Thefirst，orpreventivecheckexaminedwithregardtoEngland。
INexaminingthenextstateofmankindwithrelationtothequestionbeforeus，thestateofmixedpastureandtillage，inwhichwithsomevariationintheproportionsthemostcivilizednationsmustalwaysremain，weshallbeassistedinourreviewbywhatwedailyseearoundus，byactualexperience，byfactsthatcomewithinthescopeofeveryman’sobservation。
Notwithstandingtheexaggerationsofsomeoldhistorians，therecanremainnodoubtinthemindofanythinkingmanthatthepopulationoftheprincipalcountriesofEurope，France，England，Germany，Russia，Poland，Sweden，andDenmarkismuchgreaterthaneveritwasinformertimes。Theobviousreasonoftheseexaggerationsistheformidableaspectthatevenathinlypeoplednationmusthave，whencollectedtogetherandmovingallatonceinsearchoffreshseats。Iftothistremendousappearancebeaddedasuccessionatcertainintervalsofsimilaremigrations，weshallnotbemuch。surprisedthatthefearsofthetimidnationsoftheSouthrepresentedtheNorthasaregionabsolutelyswarmingwithhumanbeings。Anearerandjusterviewofthesubjectatpresentenablesustoseethattheinferencewasasabsurdasifamaninthiscountry，whowascontinuallymeetingontheroaddrovesofcattlefromWalesandtheNorth，wasimmediatelytoconcludethatthesecountrieswerethemostproductiveofallthepartsofthekingdom。
ThereasonthatthegreaterpartofEuropeismorepopulousnowthanitwasinformertimes，isthattheindustryoftheinhabitantshasmadethesecountriesproduceagreaterquantityofhumansubsistence。ForIconceivethatitmaybelaiddownasapositionnottobecontroverted，that，takingasufficientextentofterritorytoincludewithinitexportationandimportation，andallowingsomevariationfortheprevalenceofluxury，oroffrugalhabits，thatpopulationconstantlybearsaregularproportiontothefoodthattheearthismadetoproduce。
Inthecontroversyconcerningthepopulousnessofancientandmodernnations，coulditbeclearlyascertainedthattheaverageproduceofthecountriesinquestion，takenaltogether，isgreaternowthanitwasinthetimesofJuliusCaesar，thedisputewouldbeatoncedetermined。
WhenweareassuredthatChinaisthemostfertilecountryintheworld，thatalmostallthelandisintillage，andthatagreatpartofitbearstwocropseveryyear，andfurther，thatthepeopleliveveryfrugally，wemayinferwithcertaintythatthepopulationmustbeimmense，withoutbusyingourselvesininquiriesintothemannersandhabitsofthelowerclassesandtheencouragementstoearlymarriages。Buttheseinquiriesareoftheutmostimportance，andaminutehistoryofthecustomsofthelowerChinesewouldbeofthegreatestuseinascertaininginwhatmannerthecheckstoafurtherpopulationoperate;whatarethevices，andwhatarethedistressesthatpreventanincreaseofnumbersbeyondtheabilityofthecountrytosupport。
Hume，inhisessayonthepopulousnessofancientandmodernnations，whenheintermingles，ashesays，aninquiryconcerningcauseswiththatconcerningfacts，doesnotseemtoseewithhisusualpenetrationhowverylittlesomeofthecauseshealludestocouldenablehimtoformanyjudgementoftheactualpopulationofancientnations。Ifanyinferencecanbedrawnfromthem，perhapsitshouldbedirectlythereverseofwhatHumedraws，thoughIcertainlyoughttospeakwithgreatdiffidenceindissentingfromamanwhoofallothersonsuchsubjectswastheleastlikelytobedeceivedbyfirstappearances。IfIfindthatatacertainperiodinancienthistory，theencouragementstohaveafamilyweregreat，thatearlymarriageswereconsequentlyveryprevalent，andthatfewpersonsremainedsingle，Ishouldinferwithcertaintythatpopulationwasrapidlyincreasing，butbynomeansthatitwasthenactuallyverygreat，rather;indeed，thecontrary，thatitwasthenthinandthattherewasroomandfoodforamuchgreaternumber。Ontheotherhand，ifIfindthatatthisperiodthedifficultiesattendingafamilywereverygreat，that，consequently，fewearlymarriagestookplace，andthatagreatnumberofbothsexesremainedsingle，Iinferwithcertaintythatpopulationwasatastand，and，probably，becausetheactualpopulationwasverygreatinproportiontothefertilityofthelandandthattherewasscarcelyroomandfoodformore。Thenumberoffootmen，housemaids，andotherpersonsremainingunmarriedinmodernstates，Humeallowstoberatheranargumentagainsttheirpopulation。Ishouldratherdrawacontraryinferenceandconsideritanargumentoftheirfullness，thoughthisinferenceisnotcertain，becausetherearemanythinlyinhabitedstatesthatareyetstationaryintheirpopulation。Tospeak，therefore，correctly，perhapsitmaybesaidthatthenumberofunmarriedpersonsinproportiontothewholenumber，existingatdifferentperiods，inthesameordifferentstateswillenableustojudgewhetherpopulationattheseperiodswasincreasing，stationary，ordecreasing，butwillformnocriterionbywhichwecandeterminetheactualpopulation。
